Subject: Hungarian Times
To: Kutasi József
-Katalin
No surprise: Jobbik ahead of the Socialists
On Monday, yet another published public survey of voting intention, has indicated concerted and consistent growth for the Movement for a Better Hungary.
Political opinion polls are usually carried out by randomly questioning 1000 adults, eligible to vote. The published results are supposed to be between 2-3% of the actual result one would get if every adult voter in Hungary had been asked the same question. This 2-3% margin of error, however, proved to be a lot more significant at the last European Parliament elections: when opinion polling suggested a maximum of 8-9% in June, in sharp contrast to these same companies predictions of 4-5% in May.
In reality, Jobbik took 15% of the votes.
Could there be similarities and parallels between the methods used, and numbers produced, before the EP-elections; and the ones being used and shown prior to the general elections today? The same pattern appears to be emerging. With a "last-minute" increase being observed in Jobbik's numbers a month before the country goes to the polls.
Last month in February, according to Hungary's polling companies, support for the conservative nationalist Jobbik party ranked at only 6-7%. Whereas today the latest opinion polls show that the Jobbik party at 12% is now consistently tracking ahead of the Socialist Party. Have the number of Jobbik supporters really doubled in a month?
Or are blundering opinion pollsters now finding it increasingly difficult, yet again, to have their polling so consistently at odds with the truth, despite the inconvenience it may cause to their political paymasters?
Jobbik ahead of the Socialists? No surprises there. Not to anyone who consistently goes in to the Hungarian heartlands to find out what the people really think. Better luck next time.